SELECTION OF FORECASTING METHODS YAMAHA MOTORCYCLE SALES VOLUME NMAX 155CC IN FLAGSHIP SHOP YAMAHA CEMPAKA PUTIH JAKARTA PUSAT

Siregar, Yuliana (2020) SELECTION OF FORECASTING METHODS YAMAHA MOTORCYCLE SALES VOLUME NMAX 155CC IN FLAGSHIP SHOP YAMAHA CEMPAKA PUTIH JAKARTA PUSAT. PEMILIHAN METODA PERAMALAN VOLUME PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR YAMAHA NMAX 155CC DI FLAGSHIP SHOP YAMAHA CEMPAKA PUTIH JAKARTA PUSAT. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This study aims to find out what method is the best in forecasting the sales volume of Yamaha Nmax 155cc motorcycles at Flagship Shop Yamaha. In this study uses the Time Series Analysis method. The population in this study is the number of Yamaha Nmax 155cc motorcycle sales from the Yamaha Flagship Shop standing to the future. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling and the sample is sales volume data from January 2017 to December 2019. The forecasting method used in this study is past data method, cumulative average method, simple moving average method, weighted moving average method, double moving average method, single exponential smoothing method, double exponential method, least square method, thend parabolic method, semi average method and holt method. The measurement of forecasting accuracy used is the mean average error squared method (MSE). The results showed that from the method analyzed, the best method used to forecast the sales volume of Yamaha Nmax 155cc motorcycles was a double exponential smoothing method with constants 0.7, which has the smallest error value with MSE 163.10.

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